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Commodities investors and farmers are on alert after the third official warning in a week of an El Niño weather phenomenon emerging that could affect food and energy markets already reeling from extreme weather in many parts of the world.
El Niño refers to a warming of Pacific sea surface temperatures that occurs naturally every few years and can trigger drought in some parts of the world and floods in others, depending on its strength.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday the tropical Pacific subsurface had "warmed substantially" over the past few weeks, meaning sea surface temperatures were likely to rise in coming months.
A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific was also the strongest seen since at least 2009, the last time an El Niño developed, the bureau said.
Its warning comes a week after the US weather forecaster said there was a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño developing this summer and days after Japan's weather bureau raised its forecasts of such an event.
The last strong El Niño in 1997-1998 is estimated to have caused billions of dollars worth of agricultural damage in the US alone.
India’s exports contracted 3.67 per cent in February following seven months of sluggish growth. Achieving the export target of $325 billion for the current fiscal now appears almost beyond reach.
The decline in imports was sharper, at 17.09 per cent (to $33.81 billion), with gold imports continuing to take a hit due to import restrictions. The trade deficit narrowed to $8.13 billion from $14.12 billion last year.
The fall in exports of items such as petroleum products, drugs, plastics and linoleum, coffee, oil meals, engineering products and electronic goods pulled down exports by 3.67 per cent to $25.68 billion in February 2014 from the same month last year.
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Sees Sensex hitting 24k by end-2014
Investing, particularly in equities, is always a balance of risks against rewards, particularly in India with one potentially game-changing event - the general elections which are more unpredictable, BNP Paribashas said in a note.
"We upgraded India to overweight in our Asian asset allocation last week. Investors and corporates alike seem focused on the general election outcome as a key variable in their decision making," said Manishi Raychaudhuri, MD & HOR, BNP Paribas Securities India in a note.
In this context, BNP Paribas has recommended selective exposure in relatively better-quality high-beta stocks. However, according to the global brokerage firm, equity market's worst case scenario of a non-Congress, non-BJP 'Third Front' government can upset the Indian equities' applecart.
"With valuations close to justifiable levels, we believe Indian equities will perform in line with earnings growth. Over FY14-15, we expect a Sensex EPS CAGR of 15.9%, which implies a Sensex target of 24,800 by March 2015 or 24,000 by end-2014, employing our usual extrapolation methods," said Raychaudhuri
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Our Opininon for Today's Market.......
1.Market Looks Volatile ...
2 All Eye's On IIP & Inflation....